US consumer anxiety is running high ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, according to an Economist/YouGov survey conducted in October. Thirty-four percent of respondents named the economy and inflation as the most important issues facing the country, 67 percent said they disapproved of President Trump's handling of inflation, and 48 percent said they felt more pessimistic about their futures than they had a decade earlier. The University of Michigan's consumer survey slipped again in October, edging down to 48 from 48.1 in September.
That gloom has not shown up in luxury sales. In their most recent quarterly results, the major conglomerates continued to describe North America as a bright spot. The Americas led growth at Zegna, up 14 percent, with executive chair Ermenegildo "Gildo" Zegna noting that the region kept its double-digit trend despite an increasingly demanding comparison base. At Hermès, Americas revenues rose 8.8 percent in the third quarter, the highest growth of any region. North America was Kering's only growing region, up 1 percent in the period, and it also advanced at Moncler and Ferragamo.
Eric Fisch, HSBC's US head of retail and apparel, attributes the gap to a pattern he has observed consistently since the pandemic, in which consumer spending decouples from consumer sentiment. Shoppers, he says, express frustration, anger and disappointment and then go out and shop anyway, a behaviour that spans mass through luxury despite rising living costs.
Analysts do not expect the midterms to alter that trajectory much. Neil Saunders, managing director of Globaldata's retail division, said consumers historically have not let elections influence their spending to any great degree. Fisch noted that the surge in political advertising has crowded out exposure for brands, but expects that to clear by the holidays. Any election-related dip, analysts agree, is unlikely to damage the festive season.
Brands are leaning on the US more heavily than before. With unrest in Europe and continued softness in the Middle East, companies are banking on the American shopper and putting extra pressure on the market, Fisch said, adding that many are still investing capital in the country. He described the US as the continued growth engine and opportunity.
The split between mood and behaviour is often described as the "vibecession", in which consumers feel downbeat about the economy even when their own finances are sound. Christine Barton, managing director and senior partner at BCG, said sentiment measures mood and, she would argue, empathy, with consumers able to judge their own households but less reliable on the wider economy. Fisch said a genuine slowdown would require a tangible and prolonged compression of incomes; inflation and slower wage growth have produced some signs of that, but not pronounced ones.
Holiday forecasts point to continued spending. BCG's research found clothing and shoes to be the top planned Black Friday purchase category across every generation in the US, with purchase intent up on last year across all age groups. Eighty-five percent of consumers plan to shop year-end sales events, two percentage points more than in 2025, with apparel leading intentions in every generation.
Shoppers are, however, more deliberate. Saunders said people are thinking more deeply before buying and doing more price checking. In a recent BCG survey, 91 percent of consumers said they actively research fashion choices before purchasing, 53 percent identified quality for the price as the biggest driver of value, and 67 percent said they would not buy a product, even if they could afford it, without a strong sense of value. Barton said the emphasis has shifted to perceived value and purchases feeling personally worthwhile.
That dynamic has favoured the advanced contemporary segment, which Fisch said is the best performer in his portfolio: on-trend, well-made product at prices below those of true luxury, which has raised prices sharply in recent years. He cited brands including TWP and Harris Tapper as evidence, arguing that the consumer remains strong while high luxury has priced many shoppers out. For the fourth quarter, Fisch expects the US to drive growth as it has for the previous three quarters, and he sees nothing to suggest 2027 will not be another growth year in the country.
Sources: Vogue.